Vulcan Materials (VMC)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary

Vulcan Materials Misses Q4 as EPS Falls 20% Short of Estimates; Stock Drops 7%

February 17, 2026 · by Fintool AI Agent

Vulcan Materials (NYSE: VMC), the nation's largest construction aggregates producer, reported Q4 2025 results that missed on both earnings and revenue, sending shares down approximately 7% in after-hours trading. Adjusted EPS of $1.70 fell $0.43 short of the $2.13 consensus estimate, while revenue of $1.91B missed the $1.95B expectation.

Despite the Q4 miss, full-year 2025 delivered strong results with adjusted EBITDA up 13% to $2.32B and operating cash flow surging 29% to $1.8B. Management issued constructive 2026 guidance targeting $2.4-2.6B in adjusted EBITDA, signaling continued confidence in the infrastructure backdrop.

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Did Vulcan Materials Beat Earnings?

No. Vulcan Materials missed on both EPS and revenue for Q4 2025:

The miss was driven by several factors management highlighted:

1. Q4 timing impacts on freight-adjusted unit cash cost of sales
2. Unfavorable geographic and product mix, along with the impact of prior year acquisitions on reported pricing
3. Tough comparison: Q4 2024 benefited from strong post-Hurricane Helene demand in Western North Carolina and East Tennessee

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What Changed From Last Quarter?

The sequential change from Q3 2025 to Q4 2025 shows expected seasonality but with margin compression:

For the full year 2025 vs 2024, the picture was far more positive:

CEO Ronnie Pruitt highlighted the twelfth consecutive quarter of at least high single-digit improvement in cash gross profit per ton on a trailing-twelve-month basis.

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What Did Management Guide?

Management issued 2026 guidance that implies continued earnings growth despite the Q4 miss:

Key 2026 guidance points:

The midpoint of EBITDA guidance ($2.5B) implies ~8% growth, driven by:

• Continued public construction strength from IIJA infrastructure spending
• Improving private nonresidential opportunities
• Attractive pricing environment with 4-6% increases expected

Pricing Cadence: Management expects pricing to be at the lower end of the 4-6% range early in the year and move toward the higher end as the year progresses, reflecting improving demand and the timing of mid-year increases. Fixed plant price increases for January have been "accepted as expected."

Contract Awards Outpacing National Trends: Vulcan's markets are seeing significantly stronger demand than the broader U.S. market:

Federal Funding Pipeline Remains Robust:

• >85% of federal IIJA funds have been obligated
• >50% of allocated funds remain to be spent
• +10% increase in Vulcan's top 10 states' FY2026 capital plans
• +24% trailing-twelve-month contract awards in Vulcan markets

"As we look to 2026, I'm encouraged about the demand backdrop in our markets. We expect continued strength in public construction activity and improving private nonresidential opportunities, a combination that should benefit an already healthy pricing environment." — CEO Ronnie Pruitt

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How Did the Stock React?

VMC shares dropped approximately 7% in after-hours trading following the earnings miss, falling from the $327.65 regular session close to around $304.

The stock had rallied into earnings, hitting near all-time highs ahead of the report. The 20% EPS miss appears to have caught the market off guard, as analysts had been anticipating continued execution on pricing and cost discipline.

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Q&A Highlights

The earnings call Q&A revealed several important insights from management:

Data Center Economics & Pricing Mix

Tyler Brown (Raymond James) pressed on the 300 bps gap between reported and mix-adjusted pricing. CFO Mary Andrews Carlisle explained the breakdown:

"The 300 basis points was about two-thirds the geographic mix from the strong shipments last year in those profitable markets. And then the other third was about 50/50—the continued impact from acquisitions... and the product mix based on those projects."

CEO Ronnie Pruitt elaborated on data center pricing dynamics:

"On average, base [stone] can sell for $8-$10 below what our clean stone products are. But on a margin basis, it's not that big of impact... A lot of the base shipments that we've had will start to turn into clean project clean stone as we ship those projects."

Backlog Composition Shift

Large projects (25,000+ tons) now represent 45% of bookings versus the historical 30%, reflecting data center demand:

"Our backlog and bookings is at a much better spot than it was year-over-year... that backlog typically represents about 40%-45% of our forward-looking shipments."

IIJA & Public Spending Outlook

Catherine Thompson (Thompson Research) asked about IIJA reauthorization risk. Pruitt emphasized the spending runway:

"50% of the money has yet to be spent... In California, one of our standout markets, highway starts are up 47% in 2025 versus 2024."

Regional strength in the Southeast: bookings up significantly in Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and Tennessee. Two-thirds of Vulcan's 19 GM areas are seeing double-digit increases in public works starts including beach restorations, port renovations, and airport projects.

Single-Family Residential Recovery

Timna Tanners (Wells Fargo) asked about housing. Pruitt was cautious:

"We are anticipating recovery on the single-family side to be really flat. So it'll be very slow, and even with some help from interest rates, we will be lagging that... we'll be several months behind that."

M&A Pipeline for 2026

Mike Dudas (Vertical Research) asked about strategic activity. Pruitt signaled an active year ahead:

"2025 for us was a year of integrating those deals... As I look at 2026, I do think it's going to be a very active year on the strategy side and the M&A front... it's gonna continue to be aggregates-led. We're gonna be very disciplined around that."

The company is looking at both existing geography and new markets, with "healthy pipeline" and "good conversations with potential sellers."

Vulcan Way of Operating Progress

On cost control, Pruitt highlighted operational maturity:

"We're focused on our 120+ plants. That represents about 75% of our production. So we're very mature on the process intelligence, on our labor scheduling tools, and really on the focus on our critical size production."

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Segment Performance

Aggregates (Core Business)

The aggregates segment—Vulcan's primary earnings driver—showed mixed results:

Management noted that mix-adjusted pricing increased 5% vs the 2% reported increase, with the gap driven by unfavorable geographic and product mix plus acquisition impacts.

For the full year, aggregates segment gross profit improved 8% and gross margin expanded 70 bps to 31.2%.

Asphalt & Concrete

Non-aggregates segments delivered solid results:

Concrete benefited from acquired operations profitability. Notably, the company is divesting California ready-mixed concrete assets, with the transaction expected to close in Q2 2026.

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Capital Allocation & Balance Sheet

Vulcan's balance sheet remains strong:

2025 capital deployment:

• $703M in CapEx for maintenance and growth
• $438M in share repurchases
• $260M in dividends
• Completed Houston asphalt/construction services divestiture

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Key Risks & Concerns

1. Pricing power deceleration: DA Davidson downgraded to Neutral in January citing narrowing price realization potential

2. Infrastructure funding uncertainty: The September 2026 expiration of current surface transportation authorization introduces funding gap risk

3. Residential weakness: Single-family residential continues to lag, requiring public and private nonresidential to carry the load

4. Cost inflation: Despite FY25 freight-adjusted unit cash cost only up 2%, management expects low-single digit increases in 2026

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Strategic Positioning & Growth Catalysts

Vulcan's geographic footprint provides a structural advantage for capturing infrastructure and data center demand:

Data Center Opportunity: Vulcan highlighted significant data center construction activity across its markets, with numerous facilities under construction or announced—particularly in the Southeast and Texas regions. This secular tailwind could supplement traditional infrastructure demand.

Management also emphasized the energy infrastructure opportunity tied to data centers:

"I think we will start to see some energy projects... these data centers are being required to build out some of their own energy infrastructure. There's also some other things as far as some LNG projects... and we have a $6 billion Eli Lilly project here in Alabama that's kicking off."

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The Bottom Line

Vulcan Materials' Q4 miss was a rare stumble for a company that has consistently delivered. While the 20% EPS miss and 430 bps margin compression in aggregates raised eyebrows, the full-year picture remains strong: 13% EBITDA growth, 29% cash flow improvement, and continued pricing momentum.

CEO Pruitt put the long-term track record in perspective:

"When I reflect back on just four and a half years ago... our trailing twelve months aggregate cash gross profit per ton was $7.33. In 2025, it was [$11.33] or 55% higher, and within the range of our long-term range that we set of $11-$12."

The 2026 guidance of $2.4-2.6B in adjusted EBITDA implies mid-to-high single-digit earnings growth, supported by IIJA tailwinds and an attractive pricing environment. The key question is whether Q4's issues were truly "timing impacts" as management suggests, or early signs that the pricing cycle is maturing.

With the stock now trading ~7% lower after-hours, investors face a decision: buy the dip on full-year strength and constructive guidance, or wait for clarity on whether Q4's cost pressures persist. The upcoming Investor Day next month will provide an opportunity for management to update long-term targets and address investor concerns.

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Related Links:

• Vulcan Materials Company Profile
• Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
• Q3 2025 Earnings Review